Monday, March 23, 2015

Down we went

If you have been following this blog you will notice we don't get alot of sell signals as of late or at least any trade-able sell signals.  Well we got one today and it was a decent trade.

Again we got the sell signal after the first two 15 min bars of the day - a common occurrence.  The pattern turned out to be a double top right at resistance at 211.03 and headed back to and broke support at 210.28.

I was interested in only playing the 75 cent space between the support and resistance lines.  Ideally I should have sold half and waited to see what happens but since the drop below support happened in the a final 3 mins of the trading day I'm okay with it.

Here was today's trade.

BOUGHT 6 SPY Mar27'15 210.5 PUT @AMEX @ 0.84 
SOLD 6 SPY Mar27'15 210.5 PUT @AMEX @ 1.05 

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Weekend Update Week 12

With the market up 2.56 % (52.75 pts) on the week we only got one tradable buy signal which occurred the morning of the Fed announcement.  It was a decent buy signal as it happening right at support of 207.09.  However, the market did move lower to test minor support at 206.64 before blasting higher after the Fed announcement. I wholeheartedly believe that the big market operators positions themselves well in advance of news that will significantly move the markets one way or the other.  I also believe that these large market operators know exactly the contents of the news to be announced and position themselves accordingly.  Its not manipulation more so than it is insider trading but unfair all the same.    If you look at the daily chart for the week or two leading up to the Fed announcement you will see that the down days had significantly higher volume (more than 50% to 100% more than the 10 day average).  The big operators always look to reload their inventory of stock on the way down not on the way up.  The opposite holds true when they want to sell their inventory, that is they do it on the way up not on the way down.

 2015-03-18 09:45:00 207.14 BUY 1.241% -0.251%  $               2.57 -$            0.52


Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Fed Day Bounce

We got our first signal of the week and it was a buy signal at 9:45am candlestick this morning and it was a great signal right at support of $210.09.  The signal was good for a short term  pop before prices moved slightly lower before the massive 2:15pm move higher.  We cut through all the pre-defined support and resistance lines both medium and minor  (denoted by the dotted lines - solid lines are major).  Oddly enough price was stopped my minor resistance at 211.25.  So I guess it might become major soon enough.  By the way the market closed I have to believe we will test the all time highs once again.

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Weekend Update Week 11

So I didn't do any trading this week because of work and other distractions.  There were five intraday signals - 4 buys and 1 sell - but really there was only 3 playable trades in my opinion.  Those ones that came at or near support.  The one sell signal ended up just testing the broken resistance and moved on to the next resistance point higher.  This is why I would never play these signals mechanically.  The support and resistance lines are my guides and the buy and sell signals are supplementary.

So no trades to talk about this week that I took.  As usual the signal stats are below.
 2015-03-13 11:30:00 204.97 BUY 0.566% -0.190% 1.16 -0.39
 2015-03-13 11:00:00 205.51 BUY 0.321% -0.453% 0.66 -0.93
 2015-03-12 09:45:00 206.17 SELL 0.490% -0.116% 1.01 -0.24
 2015-03-11 10:45:00 204.8 BUY 0.278% -0.195% 0.57 -0.4
 2015-03-10 09:45:00 206.32 BUY 0.165% -0.654% 0.34 -1.35

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Nice Bounce

We rallied pretty strong today and closed one penny above predefined resistance at $207.09.  On the open we broke through minor resistance at $205.92 and the 50 day moving average at $205.97.  We got a sell signal two bars into the trading session but it only resulted  in testing the broken resistance level before heading up to the next level of resistance for the remainder of the day.   On a bias note I believe we might continue to head higher potentially to $208.80 before we see another significant pullback.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Trading Range

Today's range bound trading offered one signal at 10:45am candlestick with a potential .25% move up before falling back into the range.  The market correction looks to be slowing somewhat which should lead to a decent bounce.  I'll be looking for a move to 204.16 area and a buy signal to go long. 

Monday, March 9, 2015

Daily Signal

We did get a confirmed buy signal on the daily chart today.  Although when you see the 15min chart you can clearly see we went from support to resistance and fell back slightly near the close with a failed sell signal near resistance.  I was hoping for a confirmed sell signal on the 15min today to go short after we hit resistance just because I have a bias to the downside.  However, the market will let me know either way.


15 Minute